Urbanation just released its Q2-2024 condominium market survey for the Greater Toronto & Hamilton Area (GTHA), and we should probably talk about some of the data:
The new condominium market reported 1,688 sales in the quarter. Outside of Q2-2020 (the pandemic), this is the lowest in the past 20 years. Note: This number is self-reported by developers.
Of the 3,625 homes launched for pre-sale during the quarter, only about 17% got absorbed/sold. That's about ~616 homes, which isn't very much when you spread it out across the region's projects.
Unsold inventory increased to 25,893 homes. Urbanation equates this to 34 months of supply, versus a more "balanced level" of 10-12 months. This number breaks down to 15,157 homes in pre-construction projects, 9,788 homes in projects under construction, and 948 homes in recently completed buildings.
This is higher than Urbanation's 20-year average, but the way I see it is that the ~15k homes in pre-construction projects could very quickly evaporate. If those projects don't get to construction (and most probably won't in the short term), then that inventory will disappear from the market. On the other hand, the ~11k homes under construction or recently completed is a hard number. These homes exist, or will soon exist, and they'll need to get absorbed at some point.