Yale economist Robert Shiller - who is famous for his work on speculative bubbles and housing markets - was just awarded a Nobel Prize in Economics.

By way of his Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, he has argued that from 1890 to 2012 home price appreciation in the US (in real terms) has been basically zero. It has been flat:

As a result, he’s been very critical of the notion that homes should even be thought of as an investment. In this interview, he says the following:

“So, why was it considered an investment? That was a fad. That was an idea that took hold in the early 2000’s. And I don’t expect it to come back. Not with the same force. So people might just decide, "Yeah, I’ll diversify my portfolio. I’ll live in a rental.” That is a very sensible thing for many people to do.“

He also gives the example of Japan, which saw a massive run up in real estate prices and homeownership rates in the late 80s, only to then see them fall and stagnate for the next 20 years.

In the US, homeownership rates have gone from about 69% at the peak (2006) to roughly 65% as of 2013. The long term average is probably somewhere in between these two numbers.

But homeownership is a fundamental and heavily subsidized part of the American dream. Could America ever be a nation of renters?