Brandon Donnelly

Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

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Month: April 2021

  • In support of rubber chicken

    https://twitter.com/donnelly_b/status/1388118381241450501?s=20

    This morning I attended ULI Toronto’s annual “Meet the Chief Planners” event. (Some of my random tweets from the morning can be found here.) Now in its 7th year, it is a great event where all of the chief city planners from around the Greater Golden Horseshoe area come together with professionals from the land use community to network and discuss the future of our cities.

    Normally it happens in the evening over dinner and drinks, which is how I attended last year right before our first lockdown (we were at the elbow bump and foot tap stage of the pandemic). But this year it was of course online.

    First, I would like to say thank you to Multiplex Construction Canada (our partner on Junction House) for the invite. And secondly, I would like to say kudos to Richard Joy and the rest of ULI Toronto for coordinating such a great event with over 400 virtual attendees.

    However, the main point that I would like to make today is that I don’t know how anyone can attend a virtual conference and believe that this is some sort of “new norm.” I don’t know about all of you, but I am ready to go back to rubber chicken dinners and too many glasses of affordably priced wine — pronto.

    I say this not to criticize any of the groups that are working hard today to organize virtual events. I am a big fan of ULI and the work that they do. I would encourage all of you involved in the built environment to join immediately if you’re not already members.

    Instead, I say this as yet another piece of evidence for why I won’t stop writing and talking about the resilience of our cities. Video calls are such an awful substitute for sitting around a table with people and breaking bread. It’s not even close.

    And so as I sat at my home office desk this morning, listening to the conference and eating McDonald’s hotcakes (because, hey, Uber Eats and because, hey, it’s Friday), I couldn’t help but be reminded of how bullish I am on cities and city life. This, I thought to myself, is why cities are such a centralizing force.

    Ultimately, it is also why groups like the Urban Land Institute are so important. It is because our cities matter a great deal and because they’re not going anywhere. If you aren’t sick of me talking about the resilience of cities, you can also find me in this recent RENX article called, “Toronto residential tower boom shows no signs of slowing.”

  • Uninterrupted flow

    Adam Grant’s recent NY Times article about languishing — the psychological middle state that exists somewhere in between depressed and flourishing — has been making the rounds online. Perhaps it is because COVID sucks and many of us can relate.

    Either way, three points in the article really stood out to me (at least one of which, in my mind, directly ties back to real estate).

    Firstly, I found it helpful to hear him describe what flourishing is. In his words, “flourishing is the peak of well-being: You have a strong sense of meaning, mastery and mattering to others.” This resonates with me. I know that I am at my best when I’m accomplishing things and making progress.

    Secondly, he puts forward a possible solution to languishing — it’s the concept of “flow.” Flow is when we are absorbed in meaningful and challenging work and where, again in his words, “your sense of time, place and self melts away.” This also resonates with me. I am a big fan of a flow (even if I didn’t know what it was called).

    Thirdly — and this one is important as we all think about the future of work/office space — focus is paramount to doing exceptional things! Here’s an excerpt that I immediately paused on as I was reading the article:

    Fragmented attention is an enemy of engagement and excellence. In a group of 100 people, only two or three will even be capable of driving and memorizing information at the same time without their performance suffering on one or both tasks. Computers may be made for parallel processing, but humans are better off serial processing.

    For the rest of Grant’s article, click here.

  • Placemaking as economic development engine

    Earlier this year, the first phase of The Underline opened up in Miami’s Brickell neighborhood. Designed by James Corner Field Operations, The Underline is an eventual 10-mile linear park that will live underneath the city’s elevated Metrorail and run from the Miami River all the way south to Dadeland South Station.

    The first phase — called Brickell Backyard — is the shortest phase at only 0.5 miles. But it cuts through one of the densest parts of the city, if not the densest. Total construction costs for this phase came in at $16.524 million and here’s where that funding came from (source is The Underline):

    $7,688,760 Miami-Dade County
    $1,944,000 FDOT TAP Grant
    $2,000,000 State of Florida
    $4,871,690 City of Miami
    $19,808 FDOT

    The Underline is clearly looking to the example of New York’s High Line, which was also designed by Field Operations. And for good reason: The High Line is a shining example of placemaking as economic development engine.

    The first two phases of The High Line cost around $153 million to construct. But as of 2014 (when I wrote about it here) it was already attracting some 5 million visitors a year and was believed to be responsible for about $2.2 billion in new economic activity. I’m sure the numbers are much higher today.

    As city builders, we are always looking for ways to create value and spur economic development. But it’s perhaps important to keep in mind that the underlying goal isn’t all that complicated: Create cool places where people want to be.

    Images: The Underline

  • NFTs, luxury brands, and reclaiming ownership

    Here is an interesting interview discussion about NFTs (non-fungible tokens) and the world of luxury brands. It’s a conversation between Benoit Pagotto, cofounder of the NFT brand RTFKT Studios, and Ian Rogers, who is Chief Experience Officer at the blockchain startup Ledger (he was previously the Chief Digital Officer at LVMH). Below is an excerpt that stood out to me. It starts to speak to the potential of NFTs for fashion/luxury brands. Rogers also makes an interesting comparison to the music industry in that things are playing out very differently today compared to what happened back in the late 90s.

    Benoit is proving that he can basically sell a $4,900 digital good alongside a $100 physical good. Now imagine when the lightbulb goes off in Adidas’s head, that the item on adidas.com comes with a digital collectible and the item at “retailer dot com” does not. It fits with their focus way more than the internet did. The internet didn’t fit in any incumbent’s focus. It was the opposite. It was like, “Oh my God, this threatens our monopoly in some way,” right? For the music business, it was, “Wait a minute, we want to sell a $17 compact disc, not a $1 digital file.” They got dragged into that world. 

    On a related note, it was recently announced that model Emily Ratajkowski has made an NFT containing a photograph of herself standing in front of a Richard Prince print that had previously appropriated one of her photos. (Richard Prince’s artwork is known for appropriation.) So this is an exceptionally neat idea. Here she is using an NFT to try and take back some control. Basically: You took my photo and then profited from it. So now I’m going to stand in front of that image, take a new photo, and then reclaim some ownership using the blockchain. Is this the future?

  • Where Americans moved over the last year

    According some recent data from the US Census Bureau and USPS (via this CityLab article), the number of Americans who registered (between March 2020 and February 2021) that they were making a permanent move somewhere else, only increased by about 3%. And the vast majority of people that did move tended to simply spread out and move within the same metro area — about 84%. About 7.5% moved within the same state. And about 6% moved to some other top 50 metro area in the US.

    Some are of the opinion that these moves to the outskirts of cities would have happened regardless. The pandemic simply sped things up. Perhaps. But whatever the case may be, CityLab and others have argued that an “urban exodus” is likely the wrong way to describe what is happening. Despite reports that everybody seems to be moving to Texas and Florida (yes, Miami saw a spike), most people are simply spreading out in geographies where they already happened to live.

    The notable exceptions are the Bay Area and New York. San Francisco and San Jose — both of which usually register as being two of the most expensive housing markets in the US — saw permanent moves increase by 23% and 17%, respectively. Compared to other metro areas in the US, these figures stand out. (I assume this data is collected after somebody goes to the post office and says that they want to change their address forever.)

    But we are already seeing net outflows from San Jose and San Francisco start to taper off (see above). It’s also important to keep in mind that these cities were losing people well before the pandemic started. They are expensive places. And the fastest growing cities tend to be ones that sprawl, have a more elastic housing supply, and are consequently more affordable. That said, I suspect we’ll see this tapering off continue. The “urban exodus” isn’t going to be what it’s cracked up to be.

    Images: CityLab

  • Nearly half of the world’s population now lives in a country with a fertility rate below replacement levels

    Prior to COVID, many projections had the world’s population plateauing sometime in the second half of the 21st century. This is expected to happen because about half of the world’s population now lives in a country where the fertility rate is less than the replacement rate of 2.1 children for every woman. See above chart from The Economist.

    At the start of the pandemic, there was talk of a possible COVID baby boom. People were/are stuck at home and so that would surely translate into more sex among partners. But that doesn’t appear to have been the case for many countries. According to The Economist, births fell by 15% in China last year. The same drop was recorded in the United States last year between February and November.

    Because of this trend, the above projections are now being adjusted and pulled forward, with some predicting that the world’s population could plateau as early as the 2050s. That’s only about 30 years from now, which means that quite a few of us could end up living in a world with a declining population. This is likely to have both positive and negative consequences.

    There are nearly 8 billion people in the world today with China and India being the countries with the greatest numbers. But it’s interesting to consider how recent this figure really is (compounding takes time to gain momentum).

    The world didn’t hit a billion people until the 19th century, and the second billion was only reached by the 1920s, which in the grand scheme of things, isn’t that long ago. Since then the global population has exploded with about 6 billion people being added in only the last 100 years. That’s pretty wild when you think about it.

    P.S. I recently discovered a site called outline.com. It allows you to read, highlight, and annotate articles that you find online. But it also seems to allow you to read articles behind paywalls. Perhaps some of you will find that useful.

    Chart: The Economist

  • The urban spectacle

    The term flâneur is a French noun that more or less translates into lounger or saunterer. Its origins date back to probably the 16th century, but it was really during the 19th century that it was imbued with its new modern associations. A flâneur is a person about town, a person of leisure, and a kind of urban explorer. Their goal is to take in city life.

    In the middle of Haussmann’s overhaul of Paris, the flâneur emerged as an important literary and artistic figure in the new modern metropolis. They showed up everywhere from poems to Impressionist paintings. The flaneur was both a spectator, as well as an urban detective of sorts, responsible for hanging out and surveying the changing nature of city life.

    Being a modern-day flâneur is one of my favorite things to do. I love to do it when I’m traveling, but I also love to do it when I’m at home. Always with a camera. (The last year has been particularly helpful at encouraging aimless walks outside.)

    The flâneur is also a reminder that city life is indeed a kind of spectacle. Sometimes we walk around just to be seen and sometimes we walk around just to see others. Presumably, it is one of the reasons why many cafes in Paris arrange their seating so that you face outward toward the street. That’s the important view.

    When the flâneur figure was coming into its own, Paris was going through a profound transformation. And it was unsettling to many. These urban detectives were grappling with modernity and trying to make sense of where city life was heading.

    Though the causes are very different, we are similarly living through a period of adjustment. What will our cities be like in the the post-COVID world? That is, of course, the question. But we shouldn’t forget that our desire for urban spectacles is deeply entrenched. And I am certain that the spectacles will return much faster than most people think.

    This weekend, I set out with a couple of friends to be flâneurs. We came with cameras and drones and with the goal of documenting construction and real estate activity in a chosen meetup spot. Everything was then posted to a shared Twitter account (@unlyst). We’d like to make this a habit. So if any of you would like to join our next meetup, drop me a note @donnelly_b.

    Photo by Latrach Med Jamil on Unsplash

  • The Monocle Book of Homes

    Monocle has new book coming out called The Monocle Book of Homes. It’s a guide to 20 exceptional residences from around the world, spanning everywhere from Mexico and Australia to Finland and Lebanon. In addition to these home tours, the book is intended to serve as a kind of how-to guide for improving your own living space. There’s also a portion dedicated to inspiring neighborhoods and community-driven urban projects. I don’t have a copy of this book and so I can’t vouch for its life-enhancing abilities. But Monocle generally has good taste and always takes nice photos. So I think many of you will appreciate this book. It’s available for pre-order over here.

  • Delivery > mobility

    I was picking up food the other night on Bloor Street (via Uber Eats) and the lineup of delivery drivers outside of the restaurant was at least ten people deep when we arrived. While we were waiting, another handful of drivers pulled over to quickly pickup their deliveries. This is what is happening in our cities right now, especially here in Toronto while we live through another stay-at-home order. And the numbers certainly reflect it.

    Last month in March, Uber’s delivery business (which is separate from the company’s mobility business) recorded a 150% year-over-year increase in annualized gross bookings. The company’s run-rate as of March is now $52 billion. To put this number into perspective, the company’s mobility business also had its best ever month in March with an annualized gross bookings run-rate of $30 billion.

    Delivery > mobility right now. Makes sense.

    To further put this into perspective, total restaurant spending across the entirety of the United States was $670 billion in 2019 (figure from Benedict Evans). So Uber Eats has quickly become a meaningful part of how we eat. I obviously believe that people are dying to get out and eat at restaurants again, but these figures are still interesting nonetheless.

    It’s also interesting to think about the above trendline from a broader logistics perspective. Alongside the rise in Uber Eats, we are seeing a wave of capital move toward “rapid delivery apps.” These are platforms that allow meals, groceries, and other stuff to be delivered, in some cases, almost right away, which aligns with where I think consumers are moving. Rather than making lists and doing weekly shops, it’s now about just-in-time delivery.

    It’s arguably a lazier way of going about things, but water will always find the path of least resistance.

    Many, or perhaps most, of these platforms have adopted an asset light approach. Instacart, which partners with existing grocers, would fall into this category. Their model revolves around gig workers going into existing stores, picking orders directly from the shelves, and then delivering those orders. And it is what Blair Welch was getting at in his recent RENX interview when he reasoned that grocery shopping is still being done, almost exclusively, at local stores.

    This approach is enough for Instacart to be valued at nearly $40 billion, according to the Financial Times. So something seems to be working.

  • Culture, architecture, and hospitality in the Algarve

    The Addresses is a new hospitality brand that offers up beautifully designed custom houses for rent in the Algarve region of Portugal. Designed by Lisbon-based architects, atelier RUA, the company’s initial houses include a former fish warehouse that was renovated with both modern and traditional Portuguese touches.

    Alongside these retreats, the company (by way of a partnership with Studio Stories) also offers its guests curated “experiences.” This is all part of the company’s focus on culture, architecture, and hospitality.

    I am a big fan of these design-forward hospitality companies, which offer experiences that you could probably describe as existing somewhere between a traditional hotel and an Airbnb. Similar to the latter, they are decentralized and they are focused on authentic and local experiences.

    But they also come with a particular set of sensibilities — and perhaps some consistency — that you could argue starts to reflect your favorite hotel. Another more local example is Canadian-based Hinter, which I discovered and blogged about last fall.

    When I checked this past winter, Hinter’s houses were booked up several months in advance. This tells me that there’s more than a few people who are hungry for these sorts of travel experiences. At the same time, I think it speaks to the tremendous value that you can create with beautiful architecture and design.