Daily insights for city builders, delivered every morning at 6 AM ET. I’m Brandon Donnelly — a Toronto-based real estate developer and founder of Globizen. I’ve been writing here since 2013.

Month: December 2016

  • The great balcony debate

    I snapped this picture on College Street near Spadina Avenue (Toronto) yesterday:

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    It’s a picture of “The College” by Tribute Communities. What you’re looking at is the northwest corner of the building and a 20,000 sf grocery store fronting onto College Street.

    I took a picture of the building for really two reasons. 

    1. The colored balcony enclosures on the west elevation (right side of the picture) are not something I’ve ever seen done on a Toronto condo before. I like color. I also wonder if they create interesting interior lighting effects and greater privacy when you’re outside.

    2. I have been noticing more Juliet/French balconies on new builds as of late (could be an availability bias). Here they’re on the north elevation fronting onto College Street. Once the building steps back, you get conventional balconies. 

    I think Juliet balconies create a much nicer streetwall, particularly when used on a building’s lower floors. But I would be curious to get end-user thoughts on this. If you were looking for a place, would you rather more interior space + Juliet balcony or less interior interior + conventional balcony? Are balconies a deal breaker?

    This is something that a lot of people in the industry debate. And it varies by city. In Toronto, conventional wisdom dictates that you need to provide balconies of any size, even if nobody ends up using them, other than to store a bike.

    In other cities – sometimes because of liability and sometimes because exterior balcony space gets counted as part of the building’s overall Gross Floor Area (GFA) – balconies can be a real rarity.

    What are your thoughts? Please leave a comment below. Thanks!

  • Ian Gillespie: It’s not about business

    The founder of Westbank, Ian Gillespie, recently sat down with Bloomberg TV to discuss the Toronto and Vancouver real estate markets; his Mirvish Village (Honest Ed’s) redevelopment project; affordable housing; and the markets he is and plans to be focused on (Vancouver, Toronto, Seattle, Tokyo, San Francisco).

    I like the part where he says that he’s really not that interested in business.

    If you can’t see the video below, click here.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/api/embed/iframe?id=6542ca85-017c-436e-aefc-25d8f4bb9b66

  • Tesla is winning the arms race

    “If we have data, let’s look at data. If all we have are opinions, let’s go with mine.” – Jim Barksdale, former Netscape CEO

    Fred Wilson wrote a post yesterday about Tesla’s data advantage in this self-driving car arms race that we are currently living through. (I found the above quote in the comment section of the post.)

    In their Q3 2016 update, Tesla claims to have logged more than 1.3 billion miles on its vehicles equipped with Autopilot hardware. This is important because the more data it collects – across diverse road and weather conditions – the better the vehicles get at driving without human intervention. As Fred Wilson put it: “more data is better than more software engineers.” So that places Tesla ahead of Google, Uber, GM, et al.

    I spent a lot of time driving over the past week, certainly more than usual, and I couldn’t help but think about how much better it would have been to instead sit in the backseat and read a book (or mindlessly scroll through Instagram).

    I always try and use cruise control on long drives, but unless the road is fairly empty, I find it doesn’t work very well. Everyone is driving at different speeds and so I usually end up having to reset it / adjust it every so often.

    The big question in my mind is still: How does the world look when driving longer distances doesn’t suck so much? What changes when you can get into your / a car (important distinction) at bedtime, fall asleep, and then wake up in a new place?

    A lot, I think.

  • Motion Exposure

    Photographer Stephen Orlando is obsessed with capturing “motion through time and space.” What he does is use long single exposures and LED lights (attached to people and objects) in order to reveal paths of movement. The results are stunning.

    He has done this with various sports, including cross-country skiing, soccer, hockey, karate, and kayaking. His work is art + technology + sport. Check out his gallery here.

    Recently Stephen collaborated with Olympic kayaker Adam Van Koeverden and shot photos of him cruising along Lake Ontario with the Toronto skyline in the background. See above photo. The LED lights were attached to his paddle. The rest of those photos can be found here.

    What I like about these photos is that they’re created by visualizing – in a more permanent way – movement that is already latent within these sports. These are geometries that currently exist, we just can’t see them without Stephen’s help.

  • Dashilar Platform

    I am reading about the Dashilar Platform this evening. I am sure that some of you are already familiar with what’s happening in this Beijing neighborhood since the platform was founded in 2011. But I am just turning my attention to it.

    The Dashilar Platform is an approach to urban regeneration that grew out of a perceived failure, namely the redevelopment of Beijing’s historic Qianmen neighborhood in the lead up to the 2008 Summer Olympics.

    In this latter case, a top-down tabula rasa approach was adopted and the entire precinct was demolished to make way for what – I am told – is now a kitschy tourist area that has lost most, if not all, of its urban authenticity.

    The Dashilar approach runs counter to this and is trying to work bottom-up. Below is a description of their strategy from the Dashilar Platform website. (It feels like it was written using Google Translate.)

    Dashilar Platform is an open platform founded by Beijing Dashilar Investment Limited. As opposed to the conventional concept of blanket development, Dashilar Platform will utilize key nodes which act as catalysts for change in the area. Through research and design investigation, Dashilar Platform will promote certain archetypes, modules, and best-practice examples for both residents and outside investors. The aim is to encourage the community to move independently yet coherently towards the strong yet flexible goal of creating a sustainable community with increasing depth and diversity. All parties are welcome to join Dashilar Platform and participate in our [progressive] Dashilar Project.

    Some view this “urban acupuncture” strategy as simply a way to promote gentrification through small injections of culture and design. But gentrification, without displacement, strikes me as being the point given that the area was in decline. It was also probably one of the only sensible approaches given the fragmented ownership and illegal structures in the area.

    What stands out for me as I read up on the Dashilar Platform, is the acknowledgement that the market alone will not preserve all of which is thought to be currently desirable in the neighborhood.

    Here is an excerpt from a Medium article written by Masha Borak – a journalist and translator based in Beijing:

    Collaboration is not the only interesting thing about the [Dashilar] project. In the words of their representative, the platform wants to take on the role of a “urban curator" that would decide which kind of businesses could get cheaper rent so they wouldn’t be left to the market.

    Given the discussion that is going on in Toronto right now about 401 Richmond Street West – a non-profit and cultural hub in an area of the city seeing significant development pressures – this struck me as being particularly timely and relevant.

    Markets are not perfect.

    If any of you have any familiarity with the Dashilar Platform and what has been happening in this neighborhood, I would love to hear your thoughts in the comment section below.

  • Winter Wonderland (and 3 things to read)

    This is what it looks like in Mont-Tremblant right now:

    It’s currently -11 degrees celsius and it’s expected to snow for most of the day. It’s starting to come down right now. But this evening it’s supposed to warm up to +1 degrees celsius, which means it may turn into (freezing) rain. I hope we see a lot more snow than rain. Nobody wants an icy mountain.

    If you’re looking for things to read this morning, here are 3 pieces:

    1. In American Towns, Private Profits From Public Works. It’s a NY Times article talking about how cash-strapped towns are turning to private equity firms to pay for their infrastructure. 

    2. How Zoning Laws Shaped New York City Over the Last Century. This is about an exhibition being held at The Museum of the City of New York right now. The rules we make shape our built environment. Thanks John for the link.

    3. Authenticity, and how Snapchat is banking on it. I am very fascinated by Snap Inc.’s ability to think differently and adopt counterintuitive business strategies. There’s also a cultural dimension to all of this.

  • 3D printing and de-globalization

    This evening I stumbled upon an interesting article by T.X. Hammes talking about “de-globalization” and the impacts that this may have on international security. (He served 30 years in the US Marine Corps.)

    One of his points is that 3D printing (additive manufacturing) is going to transform not only how things are made, but also where things are made. This is perhaps an obvious point, but it’s valuable to think about what all of this will mean when production moves from global to local.

    Here’s an excerpt from the article:

    “Currently we ship raw materials to one country. It puts together the sub-assemblies, packs them, and ships them to another country for assembly. There they complete the assembly and packaging, then ship the packaged product onward to the consuming country. With the emergence of additive manufacturing, we will ship smaller quantities of raw materials to a point near the consumer, produce them, and then ship them short distances for consumption. Thus reducing international trade. The localization of energy production and return of high value agriculture to developed nations will further reduce global trade.”

    Indeed, UPS seems to be predicting that the international shipping market will be significantly impacted by these shifts and has started investing in 3D printing. But going even further, T.X. Hammes believes that declining trade could dramatically alter the international security picture.

    To me, it’s yet another reminder of what Marshall McLuhan was getting at when he argued: “The medium is the message.” Don’t stop at the obvious changes. Look for deeper structural changes. Look for the unanticipated.

  • Merry Christmas

    Merry Christmas everyone! And, thank you all for reading this past year.

    I just checked into an Airbnb in Mont-Tremblant, Québec and will be spending the next few days here with family and friends. I’ve also brought along some of my favorite wines (see above) and, obviously, my snowboard.

    Hopefully that wherever you are and whatever you’re doing, that you’re with family and/or friends. I know that this time of year can be lonely for some people when things quiet down. So hopefully you have good people to spend it with.

  • Site: Volume 6

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    Urban Capital just released Volume 6 of its annual publication called Site. (Sadly, I missed the party.)

    The cover, shown above, is a photo of Shayne Dark’s 90 foot public art installation at Tableau Condominiums. The piece is called NOVA and it’s located at the southeast corner of Peter Street and Richmond Street West in downtown Toronto. If you haven’t yet seen it, I would encourage you to go by. I love the scale that the art and architecture have brought to this stretch of Richmond.

    You can pick up a free copy of Site from any Urban Capital sales office. But in case you don’t end up doing that, I thought I would post a copy of the article I wrote for it. It’s called “Too Much of a Good Thing” and it’s a discussion about urban regeneration vs. gentrification.

    Some of you may also appreciate the Condo Development 101 feature that Urban Capital has been publishing alongside Site. The “how to” in this issue is on financing a development project.

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    Too Much of a Good Thing

    Urban Capital is an urban regenerator. From its start in Toronto’s King-Spadina district in the late 1990s to Ottawa and Montreal in the early 2000s and Halifax, Winnipeg and Saskatoon today, it has tried to be at the vanguard of urban change. But there’s a flip side of this – “gentrification”, where people get displaced. When does too much of a good thing – regeneration – become a bad thing – gentrification? Brandon Donnelly looks for the answer, and asks what can be done to offset the negative impacts of urban regeneration.

    The 1960s through to the 1980s were not kind to many cities in North America, Europe and the UK. The economy was going through a process of industrial restructuring. Racial tensions were high, particularly in the US. And the lure of the suburb proved irresistible to an auto-oriented generation who saw cities as blighted and dangerous.

    In 1967, Detroit saw one of the most destructive riots in the history of the United States. It lasted five days and resulted in 43 deaths and the destruction of over 2,000 buildings. From 1960 to 1980 the city lost nearly 30% of its population – a decline that continued into the 21st century and has only recently been reversed.

    On October 16, 1975, New York City was less than 24 hours from declaring bankruptcy, as $350 million of debt was about to come due. The economic fallout from deindustrialization had hit the city hard and crime had risen dramatically. By the end of the decade the city would lose nearly a million people and then see the start of what became known as the “crack epidemic.” People avoided “the city” – the city being Manhattan. It was simply too dangerous.

    Cities, it would seem, were dying.

    Yet despite this dire urban backdrop, concerns over gentrification were not non-existent. New York neighbourhoods such as the South Houston Industrial District (today’s SoHo) and the Lower East Side were embroiled in fights over highways, displacement, and gentrification throughout the 1960s, 70s, and 80s.

    Indeed, the term “gentrification” can be traced back to 1964, when it was coined by the German-born British sociologist Ruth Glass. She described it as a rapid process where modest mews, cottages, and previously subdivided Victorian houses were upgraded to elegant and expensive houses – ultimately upsetting the whole social order of the district.

    Baron Haussmann – the original gentrifier

    Even before the term had been coined, “gentrification” as an urban phenomenon had long entered the mind of city dwellers. From the 1850s to the 1870s, during Baron Haussmann’s complete destruction of working-class medieval Paris, the French poet Charles Baudelaire wrote about the estrangement he felt with this newer and richer Paris. This was 19th century gentrification at work.

    But is gentrification always a bad thing? As Detroit bled people in the post-war years, would anyone have opposed a new “luxury” condo tower, assuming it could have been built? Should Haussmann and Emperor Napoléon III have left Paris the way it was? The generation that was displaced wasn’t all that thrilled, but today Paris is one of the most admired and visited cities in the world. So was it worth it?

    De-gentrification is not a great alternative

    Another way to look at gentrification is that it by definition requires capital investment. To renovate and regenerate a neighbourhood is to invest money and make new things. Therefore, the opposite of gentrification – let’s call it de-gentrification – would be disinvestment. This is where capital investments are not made. Things are left to age, because let’s keep in mind that all built form depreciates over time. Nothing is static.

    Most people would probably agree that disinvestment is not an optimal outcome for communities. And you don’t have to look hard to find examples of it. In 1970, the United States had 1,100 urban Census tracts that could be classified as “high poverty.” By 2010, 40 years later, that number had climbed to 3,165. This is disinvestment. This is the lack of gentrification, which doesn’t always get talked about.

    Developers such as Urban Capital have positioned themselves as urban regenerators. What started with a late 1990s boutique loft project – Camden Lofts – in Toronto’s hollowed out Fashion District has grown into a firm philosophy around investing in and regenerating neglected urban areas. In 2013 the company completed the first phase of its four-phase River City development. It was the first building in Toronto’s emerging West Don Lands district, previously a derelict area completely outside the consciousness of Torontonians.

    Earlier, with its East Market development in 2001, Urban Capital kick started what ultimately grew into quite a condo boom in Ottawa. East Market was at the scruffy end of the city’s Byward Market, a one-acre empty parking lot adjacent to a Salvation Army hostel. It was the first major condominium development proposed in the city’s central district in over ten years.

    And today, with the completion of its Glasshouse development in Winnipeg, Urban Capital is delivering 200 new residential units in a downtown bereft of permanent residents.

    Wake up and smell the gentrification

    But at what point does urban regeneration become unwanted gentrification?

    In 2012, on the heels of its successful East Market and then Mondrian developments, Urban Capital returned to Ottawa to launch an infill project in an area of that city that they felt represented an urban void between the downtown core and the trendy Glebe neighbourhood. Their objective was to re-energize a stretch of blocks that, at the time, was characterized by a mostly surface parking lots.

    However, instead of being welcomed as an urban regenerator, as it had been with East Market and other projects, the company was seen as an intruder coming in to build luxury condos for the wealthy. An anti-gentrification campaign quickly emerged with flyers screaming: “Wake Up and Smell the Gentrification!” The gist of their strongly rhetorical message: Don’t get pushed out by the rich developers.

    Of course, this is not unique to Urban Capital in Ottawa. Gentrification battles and fears of displacement dominate headlines around the world. In many ways it is symptomatic of a larger socioeconomic shift: income inequality is rising and the middle class is being squeezed out. The results of this now play out on our streets with every new condo development and hipster coffee shop.

    Good at the beginning; not so good later

    Perhaps the main difference between welcome regeneration and unwanted gentrification is that the revitalization of neglected urban areas – the “welcome regeneration” – often does not directly impact that many people. There’s nobody there to oppose change at the beginning. Things are just getting starting.

    For instance, no one lived in Toronto’s Fashion District in the 1990s, and most people did not believe that this de-industrialized part of the city would one day be transformed into the thriving mixed-use community that it is today. So urban regeneration was not only not opposed, it was actively encouraged.

    But as communities mature and people begin to fear that additional investment will translate into displacement and/or a reduction (or even change) in their quality of life, NIMBYism takes root. Urban Capital has projects from the Maritimes to the Prairies, and partner David Wex describes the evolution this way: “I’m usually pretty popular at the start of a city’s upswing, and then disdained (at best) later on.”

    It would seem that cities only have two states: they’re either on the brink of death or they’re being gentrified and over-developed by nasty developers.

    Inclusive Urbanism

    It is short-sighted to think that as cities and neighbourhoods cross the chasm from under-the-radar regeneration to unwanted gentrification, simply stopping change will preserve the status quo. Instead, we must find the right balance between growth and preservation. And we need to get better at creating inclusive urbanism.

    Earlier this year, at the 24th Annual Congress for the New Urbanism in Detroit, Carol Coletta of the Kresge Foundation’s American Cities practice delivered a keynote speech where she spoke about the transforming city and the battles of gentrification. She urged everyone to consider the value of mixed-income communities, and gentrification – without displacement. She ended by saying: “Equity does not sit in opposition to a thriving, appealing city. It is central to it.”

    Since the very beginning, people have moved to cities in search of social interaction and wealth creation. So it strikes me that the concern may not necessarily be that neighbourhoods could be becoming wealthier (gentrified), but rather that the investments being made and the benefits being created are not being broadly shared. And that some people are not only being left out, but are in fact getting pushed out.

    So what should we do?

    First, we shouldn’t assume that this is entirely a design, real estate and city planning problem. Exponential technological growth has caused rapid structural changes in our economy, manifesting itself in an economic “decoupling”. This has been well documented. A 2012 study by Andrew McAfee, a research scientist at MIT, found that while U.S. productivity and GDP have continued to grow since the early 1980s, median household income has in fact decreased. This is the hollowing out of the middle class that is driving the populism – in Europe as well as the U.S. – that we are seeing today. Sadly, this is not a problem that architects and real estate developers, alone, can solve.

    Second, we – meaning everyone involved in the built environment – need to do more to create inclusive urbanism. This means mixed-income and mixed-use communities that minimize displacement and ensure that residents are well connected to jobs, education, and other services. Already, cities such as Toronto have by-laws in place to preserve affordable and mid-range rental housing in the face of new development. Residential rents are also controlled, with maximum annual rent increases set by the government. You could call these anti-displacement policies.

    Third, there has been much debate about the connection between new housing supply and affordability. On one side you have Harvard economist Edward Glaeser, who touts the affordability success of cities such as Houston, a sprawling metropolis with few land use controls. And on the other you have people like urbanist Richard Florida, who have become frustrated with this proposed solution to inclusivity.

    It is unlikely that supply alone will solve the urban affordability crisis, but there is a clear connection. Heavily supply constrained cities – Vancouver because of its hemmed-in geography, and Toronto (arguably) because of its greenbelt – have seen prices increase faster than more elastic markets. That’s because the rich will always outbid the poor for housing – particularly when supply is fixed. So stopping new supply does not guarantee that displacement will not happen. In fact, it may even exacerbate it. Without new supply, the wealthy will simply look to gentrify the existing housing stock.

    Vital cities evolve.

    As counterintuitive as some of this may seem at first, investment in cities is a sign of vitality. Every construction crane or sidewalk repair is money being spent to maintain and, hopefully, improve the environment in which we live. When cities and neighbourhoods fall into neglect, we seem to be able to recognize the value of change. That’s when we invite urban regeneration. That’s when we want to see that crane up in the sky. But at some point there’s a feeling – and it’s not a new feeling, as evidenced by the “Haussmannization” of Paris – that it’s simply too much of a good thing. Enough is enough.

    Not all development is good development, but we must find a balance. Cites are incredibly powerful and resilient organisms. They welcome us in. They allow us to live our lives with our families and friends. And they empower us to generate wealth. But in order for them to do that best, they need to be allowed to adjust, evolve, and grow.

    Rather than try and stop urban change, a more productive set of questions would be: Are we using this opportunity to improve the built environment and create inclusive urbanism? And how can we ensure that the benefits will be more broadly shared? These are the great challenges facing our cities today. And if we don’t address these issues head-on, the gentrification battles will only get nastier.

  • Supply down. Prices up. Unit sizes up.

    This morning BILD released its November new home data for the Greater Toronto Area. 

    The story is one we’ve been hearing for a while. Supply is trending downward. It’s becoming harder to build. And prices are up. The average new detached house in this region is now C$1,230,961 and the average new condo is now C$493,137 (~$601 psf). Overall, average pricing is up 20% for low-rise houses and up 10% for condos, compared to this time last year.

    One of the things that I find interesting about the data is how unit sizes have recently started trending upward on the high-rise (condo) side. Below is a chart from Altus Group that shows what I’m talking about. Look at the increase from the middle of 2015 to today. The average is now 820 sf, compared to what looks to be around 770 sf at its lowest point.

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    Now, there are a number of possible explanations for this. One is that boomers are starting to sell their houses and move into condos in larger numbers, and 500 sf just don’t do. The market is starting to cater to them. Another possible explanation is that low-rise pricing has become so out of reach for many people and families, that they are now looking to condos to fill that need.

    I see both scenarios playing out in new projects today. But this second scenario, in particular, is one that I’ve been thinking about for a few years now. It’s less obvious than the boomer play. But I think of it as the market maturing. I like seeing families living right in the city and I am sure we will see more of that in the future.