# When's the bottom?

**Published by:** [Brandon Donnelly](https://brandondonnelly.com/)
**Published on:** 2026-03-11
**Categories:** real-estate, globe-and-mail, development, insolvencies, distressed-sales, toronto, vancouver
**URL:** https://brandondonnelly.com/whens-the-bottom

## Content

Howard Chai recently reported in the Globe and Mail on the number of "distressed" commercial real estate transactions that Canada has seen over the last few years:2023: 119 transactions totalling $767 million2024: 191 transactions totalling more than $1.5 billion2025: 252 transactions totalling more than $1.42 billionThese numbers are from Altus Group and they, importantly, only include sales involving a court proceeding. They do not include properties sold at a loss because of financial distress or any other such scenarios. This means that the actual amount of "distress" in the market is certainly greater. We're all just holding on. The hardest-hit asset class is, not surprisingly, development land. This makes sense because the value of development land is mostly binary right now. Either you can do something productive with it (in which case there's value) or you can't, and it's illiquid. Land is risky. It just doesn't seem that way when the market is hot. The theme of the article is that the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. Jeremiah Shamess of Colliers is cited as saying he thinks we will see the "emergence of a bottom" late this year or early into 2027. He must have read my annual predictions post in January, where I argued the same. These periods of time always suck for everyone involved. But as is always the case in markets, the faster we deal with the pain, the faster we'll get to the other side. Failure is an essential part of capitalism. As many have said: "Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell."Cover photo by Damian Kravchuk on Unsplash

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