# The return of price discovery in Toronto's condominium market

**Published by:** [Brandon Donnelly](https://brandondonnelly.com/)
**Published on:** 2026-07-07
**URL:** https://brandondonnelly.com/the-return-of-price-discovery-in-torontos-condominium-market

## Content

I was speaking to a developer friend the other week about the current state of the Toronto market, and I told him that I think we're at the bottom. He responded with, "Oh yeah, I think so too, but how long are we going to be here for?" Good question. The answer is, of course, unknowable. We can all speculate based on the lack of housing starts we have seen over the past few years, when positive immigration is expected to return, and other factors, but nobody can say for sure. As Howard Marks said on a recent Prof G Markets podcast, this is what makes investing so interesting and rewarding. There's no way to ever know all the answers! What I think we can say about this year, though, is that the condominium market has successfully returned to price discovery. Since roughly 2022, the market has been frozen because the bid-ask spread was simply too great. But deals are once again getting done. In June of this year, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported 1,124 condominium apartment sales in Toronto and 590 sales in the suburbs. Both of these numbers represent a 14.3% year-over-year increase. We're talking about a limited dataset, but I'm seeing and hearing from colleagues a similar dynamic play out on the new construction side of the business. End-user buyers have emerged from the sidelines and are now the dominant buyers (versus investors). This doesn't necessarily tell us what the next few years will look like, but I suspect that when we look back on the second half of 2026, it will represent an important milestone. Cover photo by Narciso Arellano Chart from TRREB

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