# Standing inventory is clearing out, but a major condo supply crunch is coming

By [Brandon Donnelly](https://brandondonnelly.com) · 2026-07-24

toronto, toronto condos, condo sales, pre-construction, urbanation, sales, new home sales, hamilton, gtha

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Urbanation just released its Q2 2026 new condominium [sales report](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/gtha-new-condo-sales-increase-over-50-q2https://www.urbanation.ca/news/gtha-new-condo-sales-increase-over-50-q2) for the GTHA (Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area). New condominium apartment sales posted their first year-over-year gain since 2023, with 702 home sales, representing a 52% annual increase. Anecdotally, I will also say that those of us in the industry can feel these winds changing.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/3cacb93de7ae2d382490ce6d93d869c24f169318212b2c3766ccdbe4e1855b5a.png)

These figures are still well below the 10-year average, but the market is starting to do what it needs to do, and what the new (and cumbersome) HST rebate is intended to do. Standing inventory is getting sold, and I suspect the second half of this year will look even stronger as the industry figures out how to actually paper and administer this rebate.

Importantly, the rebate is not helping pre-construction sales (though that's just one factor). Q2 saw just 50 sales. Basically, nothing. This makes sense because the new rebate requires the purchase agreement to be signed before March 31, 2027. That's not enough time for most pre-sale programs, but it does create a sense of urgency around standing inventory.

So, what we are seeing today is a new condominium market that has [refound price discovery](https://brandondonnelly.com/the-return-of-price-discovery-in-torontos-condominium-markethttps://brandondonnelly.com/the-return-of-price-discovery-in-torontos-condominium-market) and is starting to clear out already-built standing inventory, but one that is not producing a meaningful amount of new housing starts. As Urbanation says in its release, "condo supply is set to see its largest ever decline in the coming years."

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_Cover photo by_ [_Narciso Arellano_](https://unsplash.com/@el_chicho?utm_source=unsplash&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=creditCopyText)

_Chart from_ [_Urbanation_](https://www.urbanation.ca/news/gtha-new-condo-sales-increase-over-50-q2https://www.urbanation.ca/news/gtha-new-condo-sales-increase-over-50-q2)

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*Originally published on [Brandon Donnelly](https://brandondonnelly.com/standing-inventory-is-clearing-out-but-a-major-condo-supply-crunch-is-coming)*