The Missing Middle Initiative just released its latest Greater Toronto Area and Greater Golden Horseshoe Housing Report Card. If you'd like to download a copy and see the generally abysmal grades, there's a link at the bottom of this page. But here are the high-level findings (based on Q4-2025 data):

• Housing starts are down 34% year-over-year across the 34 municipalities covered in the report.

• Condominium starts, in particular, are down over 50% year-over-year.

• Pre-construction sales, which are a precursor to housing starts, are down 89% for condominiums and 58% for ground-oriented houses.

• The only exception to the above is purpose-built rental starts, which increased 39% year-over-year. But this increase doesn't come close to offsetting the declines seen in both condominiums and low-rise housing.

Once again, we are reminded of the looming housing shortage that, I think, could be felt as soon as next year. New construction is inherently slow to respond to market changes, and, as of right now, the ship is clearly headed toward almost no new supply. For that to change, we will almost certainly need to see pre-construction sales return.

Cover photo by Dmitry Gerasimenko on Unsplash