$UBER went public on Friday. Notwithstanding the initial stumble, Uber will go down in history as one of the most lucrative venture capital investments of all time.
The stock is down from its IPO price of $45 per share, but at that price, the initial seed investment of $510,000 that First Round Capital made back in 2010 was worth about $2.5 billion on Friday.
Here is a list of some of the other notable investors from Uber's seed round and what their initial investments grew to over the course of 9 years (chart from the WSJ):
Of course, for every Uber, there are many more failed companies. And for every investor who turns $5,000 into nearly $25 million, there are many more who decided to pass on the opportunity.
In the case of Uber, many early investors couldn't see how the product could go mainstream. It initially started upmarket with limousines, which was actually a clever way to hack the chicken-and-egg problem that plagues marketplaces.
Many also wondered how many metro areas outside of San Francisco had the kind of urban density and supply and demand drivers to support this kind of a service.
Today, some nine years later and many billionaires later, lots of people -- including myself -- are still wondering: Will Uber turn out to be a great (i.e. profitable) business? Hindsight is always 20/20.
Uber filed its S-1 last week in anticipation of going public in May. The WSJ reported on it, here. These are always interesting documents because you get access to previously private information. Here we can see that Uber's ride-hailing market share in the US is down to 67% (as of February 2019) from 78% two years earlier. Revenue from this business line -- which is the company's biggest -- also seems to have levelled off (chart from the WSJ):
The ride-hailing business today has become a commodity. A lot of people, myself included, simply check to see which service is the cheapest (usually it's Uber vs. Lyft). So this space feels to me like a giant race to build the biggest network and get to something new, whether that be autonomous vehicles or delivery drones. Uber calls this creating a "liquidity network effect." Here's an excerpt from the S-1:
We have a massive, efficient, and intelligent network consisting of tens of millions of Drivers, consumers, restaurants, shippers, carriers, and dockless e-bikes and e-scooters, as well as underlying data, technology, and shared infrastructure. Our network becomes smarter with every trip. In over 700 cities around the world, our network powers movement at the touch of a button for millions, and we hope eventually billions, of people. We have massive network scale and liquidity, with 1.5 billion Trips and an average wait time of five minutes for a rider to be picked up by a Driver in the quarter ended December 31, 2018. Every node we add to our network increases liquidity, and we intend to continue to add more Drivers, consumers, restaurants, shippers, carriers, and dockless e-bikes and e-scooters. We also hope to add autonomous vehicles, delivery drones, and vertical takeoff and landing vehicles to our network, along with other future innovations. Our strategy is to create the largest network in each market so that we can have the greatest liquidity network effect, which we believe leads to a margin advantage.
If you'd like to download a full copy of their filing, click here.
