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According to the WSJ, the US office market saw a significant increase in leasing activity in the first quarter of this year. Approximately 115 million square feet of space was leased, which represents a 13% increase from the previous quarter and the highest level since before the pandemic in mid-2019.
But then, tariffs for everybody! Now tenants are worried that a recession is coming, inflation is going to rise, and that so too will interest rates. Uncertainty is bad for business.
Here's where things broadly sit as of the beginning of this year:
The national office vacancy rate was 19.7% at the end of February 2025
San Francisco had the highest vacancy at 27.8%
$7 billion worth of office sales were recorded in the first two months of the year and the average price was $177 per square foot
The cheapest markets are/were in the midwest with Minneapolis-Saint Paul recording the lowest average sale price of $50 per square foot (versus $215 psf a year ago)
Chicago averaged $67 psf
The most expensive markets were places like San Diego ($662 psf), Manhattan ($450 psf), San Francisco ($282 psf), Miami ($239 psf), and Los Angeles ($207 psf) — we continue to see a flight to quality
Maybe things will get better later this year, or maybe they won't. It's impossible to know what comes next in this trade war.
Cover photo by Delia Little on Unsplash
Real estate development is a risky endeavor and so a big part of this business is managing those risks. There's planning risk, market risk, construction risk, bad-drawing risk, and the list goes on. But it's also important to keep in mind that the risks you worry about the most will invariably change throughout the course of each real estate cycle.
For example, early on my career, we worried a lot less about construction cost escalations. We'd plug in a 2-3% annual increase into the pro forma and then move on the next line item. Of course, during the pandemic, this is almost all we worried about. What's our exposure? Do we have enough of an allowance? How are our subcontractor contracts drafted?
This particular panic has subsided since then, but now there's new panic: closing risk. We've spoken about this before, but given the number of condominium completions expected this year, I think it's going to remain top of mind for at least another 18 months (in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area).
The simple point I'd like to make today is that it's important to worry about risks, but it's equally important to worry about the risks that don't seem like risks at all today, which is admittedly trickier. Because you just never know. It's hard, for instance, to predict exactly when your largest trading partner might suddenly start an arbitrary trade war.
But it can happen, as we've learned.
Cover photo by Tiomothy Swope on Unsplash
According to the WSJ, the US office market saw a significant increase in leasing activity in the first quarter of this year. Approximately 115 million square feet of space was leased, which represents a 13% increase from the previous quarter and the highest level since before the pandemic in mid-2019.
But then, tariffs for everybody! Now tenants are worried that a recession is coming, inflation is going to rise, and that so too will interest rates. Uncertainty is bad for business.
Here's where things broadly sit as of the beginning of this year:
The national office vacancy rate was 19.7% at the end of February 2025
San Francisco had the highest vacancy at 27.8%
$7 billion worth of office sales were recorded in the first two months of the year and the average price was $177 per square foot
The cheapest markets are/were in the midwest with Minneapolis-Saint Paul recording the lowest average sale price of $50 per square foot (versus $215 psf a year ago)
Chicago averaged $67 psf
The most expensive markets were places like San Diego ($662 psf), Manhattan ($450 psf), San Francisco ($282 psf), Miami ($239 psf), and Los Angeles ($207 psf) — we continue to see a flight to quality
Maybe things will get better later this year, or maybe they won't. It's impossible to know what comes next in this trade war.
Cover photo by Delia Little on Unsplash
Real estate development is a risky endeavor and so a big part of this business is managing those risks. There's planning risk, market risk, construction risk, bad-drawing risk, and the list goes on. But it's also important to keep in mind that the risks you worry about the most will invariably change throughout the course of each real estate cycle.
For example, early on my career, we worried a lot less about construction cost escalations. We'd plug in a 2-3% annual increase into the pro forma and then move on the next line item. Of course, during the pandemic, this is almost all we worried about. What's our exposure? Do we have enough of an allowance? How are our subcontractor contracts drafted?
This particular panic has subsided since then, but now there's new panic: closing risk. We've spoken about this before, but given the number of condominium completions expected this year, I think it's going to remain top of mind for at least another 18 months (in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area).
The simple point I'd like to make today is that it's important to worry about risks, but it's equally important to worry about the risks that don't seem like risks at all today, which is admittedly trickier. Because you just never know. It's hard, for instance, to predict exactly when your largest trading partner might suddenly start an arbitrary trade war.
But it can happen, as we've learned.
Cover photo by Tiomothy Swope on Unsplash
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