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I watched Tesla's We, Robot event last night. As many of you know, Elon and his team showcased a Cybercab, Robovan, and a humanoid robot that dances funny, all of which will be available in the market for purchase at some unknowable date in the future. What was obvious is that Elon himself has no clear idea of when this will be.
What I will say, though, is that the designs look cool. The Cybercab looks like a Porsche and a Cybertruck had a love child, and the Robovan looks like an Art Deco rendition of what the future is supposed to be like. I first wondered why they'd create a robotaxi with only two seats. But thinking about it now, most Uber rides probably only have 1-2 passengers.
Despite these pretty designs, the overwhelming reaction to the event seems to be one of disappointment. We've heard what was said before. Public transportation is bad (I disagree). Autonomy will free up your time and remove unnecessary parking spaces from our cities (allowing for more public space). And soon you'll be able to put your under-utilized car to work and earn extra cash.
Cool, but when?
Waymo and Uber are not, as far as I know, hosting similarly flashy events. But as far as I can tell, they're making meaningful progress in advancing toward full autonomy. As of June of this year, Waymo had already logged over 22 million rider-only miles. And in September, they announced a partnership that would bring AVs to Austin and Atlanta by way of the Uber app.
At this point in the hype cycle, I don't think anyone is interested in hearing promises about what the future of autonomy will be like, especially without any firm dates. They want to know: Are we there yet? So I think it's no surprise that people, including investors, weren't all that pumped up by the event.
On a more important note, Tesla had bicycles with brightly illuminated wheels circulating around their event set (at Warner Bros.) to presumably demonstrate that their Cybercabs can successfully navigate around moving objects (when brightly illuminated). If you missed them, look at the 29 second mark in the below video:
https://youtu.be/Mu-eK72ioDk?si=JeU4z8Q5HLI-f9r3&t=29
I can't be the only one who thought: "What are those? Now, that's what I want!" So I've asked Elon when they'll be available and when I can buy one. I'll keep you all posted on his response.
Waymo and Uber just announced a partnership that will bring Waymo's autonomous vehicles to the Uber app in Austin and Atlanta. Notably, this is an exclusive partnership, meaning the only way you'll be able to summon a Waymo vehicle in these cities will be through Uber.
The people who follow this space closely, people like Reilly Brennan of Trucks (VC) and Harry Campbell (The Rideshare Guy), think this is a really big deal for a number of reasons.
One, it signals a bifurcation in the industry where there will be companies, like Waymo, that supply autonomous vehicles, and companies, like Uber, that operate them and manage the overall ride hailing marketplace. As part of this deal, Uber is going to handle all of the maintenance and cleaning of the vehicles. This split is similar to the airline industry.
Two, it suggests, and this is Harry's argument, that Waymo needs Uber more than Uber needs Waymo. One of the reasons for this is that a 100% AV fleet is simply too expensive to operate if you're solving for peak demand loads. Because during off-peak times, you then need to pay for downtime.
Uber, on the other hand, doesn't pay for downtime with its human drivers. Most of its drivers are part-time and only plug in when they want to or when the surge pricing becomes too attractive to pass up. So they're the perfect compliment to an AV fleet. Harry argues that this is part of Uber's competitive moat.
And three, it signals that AVs are really starting to arrive, if not already here. The hype cycle certainly hit its trough of disillusionment and everyone switched to thinking that AVs weren't going to happen for many years, if not decades. But now it's happening. City by city.
I know I'm late to the party on this, but I finally tried Apple Vision Pro this weekend. I was in the Apple Store at the Toronto Eaton Center getting the battery replaced in my phone, so I decided to do a demo. And let me tell you -- I was totally blown away. I messaged everyone I knew (after I got my phone back) and told them that they need to try it.
To be clear, though, very few people right now want to actually buy this computing device. Initially, Apple was thinking that it would sell upwards of 800,000 units this year. But now it expects to sell somewhere closer to 400,000. Maybe. The device is too expensive, too bulky, and the use cases just aren't there for someone to feel they need to buy it.
I also found that, when I was looking at the world around me, I could tell I was looking at a video. It wasn't exactly perfect. (Vision Pro creates a mixed-reality experience by recording the world around you and then playing it back to you.) But that's okay. The hardware will get better. The price will come down. And the developer community will build a bunch of killer apps that nobody has even thought of yet.
https://twitter.com/Casey/status/1753848769118970152
None of this changes the fact that the device is still an astonishing technical achievement. The eye tracking works perfectly. All of my hand gestures were flawlessly picked up. And the overall experience was entirely immersive -- from 3D videos (recorded on regular iPhones) to a butterfly landing on my hand and a velociraptor flaring its nostrils right in front of me.
What was most impactful to me is that I could easily imagine a future where all of this works. Is this a more exciting way to watch sports? Yes. I sat courtside and Lebron dunked in my face. Is this a better way to watch movies on a plane? By far. Will this be used to help build buildings and coordinate design & engineering disciplines? Yes, absolutely, among many other things.
It is also easy to imagine how spatial computing is likely to dovetail with other innovations such as AI and blockchains. Mixed-reality or extended reality blurs the line between physical and digital. And in my mind, AI becomes the way in which we will want to interact with this new computing world. (It's not easy to type on a virtual keyboard.)
At the same time, digital artifacts will come to be viewed much differently when they're all blended in. An NFT sitting in a cold wallet is going to feel a lot different than an NFT hanging in a fully immersive 3D gallery that is viewed by millions of people. This strengthens the case for blockchains, and the ownership of digital objects, products, and services.
Maybe this is really far into the future. I don't know. But regardless, if you haven't already, I would encourage you to book a demo at your local Apple Store. However cool and great you think it will be, it will be better. I'm not suggesting you should buy one, but I am suggesting that you need to try it out and see a glimpse into the future.
And if any of you are working on Apple Vision Pro software that is somehow connected to the design and construction industry, I would love to hear from you and learn more about what you're up to. I have complete conviction that this will form the future of our industry. The best place to reach out is here.
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