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What I have learned from this recent New York Times article is that if you have a company with "AI" in the name — such as OpenAI, ScaleAI, Adept AI, Hayden AI, or Harvey AI — then you probably need to lease office space in an area of San Francisco (around the Mission District) that is now being called The Arena. Here's a map from the article:
The struggles of San Francisco's office market have been well publicized. At the beginning of this year, San Francisco had the highest office vacancy in the US at approximately 27.8%. But beneath this headline, AI firms have leased more than 5 million square feet in the city since 2020. And CBRE is forecasting that AI-related companies will lease another 16 million square feet between now and 2030. So here comes the boom following the bust — which is the bipolar way in which San Francisco generally likes to operate.
But what is also interesting is that, even in this brave new world of AI, blockchains, and remote work, agglomeration economies are alive and well. AI companies are choosing to physically cluster in The Arena because there are economic benefits to doing so. There are mountains of research to support the fact that it will make these firms more innovative and more productive due to knowledge spillovers. You don't want to be isolated from your competitors — you want to be cheek by jowl. Physical proximity matters and, therefore, cities matter.
So much so that the New York Times is now asking: What if San Francisco is the new Silicon Valley? In other words, could its center of gravity be right now moving from the suburbs to the city? That makes perfect sense to me.
Cover photo by Josh Hild on Unsplash; map from the New York Times
We've spoken before about how much electricity is going to be demanded by data centers in the future. According to this study, data center energy usage is expected to represent somewhere between 6.7-12% of total electricity consumption in the US by 2028. And according to McKinsey, demand for data centers is going to at least 4x by the end of this decade. So the consensus is that we are going to need more, not less, data centers in the foreseeable future.
But if data centers represent the physical infrastructure needed for our digital activities, it's both interesting and valuable to think about where this stuff wants to go, especially since tech is, in some ways, a decentralizing force for cities. Interestingly enough, they exhibit the same economies of agglomeration as many other urban activities in that they want to be near density and other data centers. Maybe even more so.
Here's an excerpt from a Harvard Business School report (2022) called "Where the Cloud Rests: The Location Strategies of Data Centers."
The study finds a pervasive urban bias in the location of third-party data centers. For example, we find that all large metropolitan areas with over 700,000 population have at least one supplier. Less dense areas may or may not have any. Moreover, local entry rises with the presence of local information industries and intensive data users, such as finance, insurance, and real estate. Because less supply locates in the areas with lower density, a high fraction of buyers in small and medium-sized locations must get their services from non-local suppliers—likely located in the closest major city. Relatedly, we also find supply of more specialty services in denser and more competitive locations. We interpret all these patterns as the result of tension between economies of scale and user preference for proximity.
According to this annual survey by Henley & Partners (first chart from Bloomberg), these are the top 10 wealthiest cities in the world when you count the number of high-net-worth individuals (i.e. people with investable wealth greater than US$1 million):
However, if you instead count billionaires, the top city flips from New York City to the Bay Area (which includes San Francisco and all of Silicon Valley). This isn't all that surprising.
And here's a quote from LA-based Rising Realty Partners:
Once a data center hub is entrenched, it tends to create its own gravitational pull. Data center tenants want to be near other data center tenants. And the main hubs also boast high levels of connectivity. The calculus is straightforward: It’s far easier to run a fiber optic cable across the street or across town than to run a connection across the state or country.
This is what is happening in Northern Virginia with "Data Center Alley" and what is now now referred to as the world's largest data center hub. As of July 2024, Loudoun County, VA (which is located just 34 miles from Washington, DC) had 43 million square feet of existing data centers and ~47 million more square feet in the pipeline. This represents an increase of ~60 million square feet compared to where the area was as recently as 2022.
Overall, there are only so many "primary" data center markets in the US. CBRE lists 8. This makes it a relatively concentrated real estate asset class in terms of geography.
Cover photo by Claudio Schwarz on Unsplash
Also not surprising is the precipitous decline in the number of HNWIs residing in Hong Kong. From 2012 to 2022, the number declined by 27%. That said, a bunch of other cities fared even worse. The city that lost the most millionaires over this same decade was Moscow. It declined by 44%.
For those of you wondering about Toronto, we placed 12th, just after Chicago, with 105,200 millionaires, 193 centi-millionaires, and 18 billionaires:
The next city in Canada on the list is Vancouver, and following that is Montreal:
It is interesting to see how much further behind Montreal places with these metrics given that it is an urban region with about 1.6x the population of that of Vancouver's.
Also interesting -- given its size and global importance -- is Paris (18th when it comes to HNWIs):
However, when it comes to seasonal draw, Paris is second only to Miami, which appears to be the undisputed global destination for rich people in the winter. Paris has 126 centi-millionaire residents, but during its peak holiday month (presumably summer), this number is believed to increase to over 300:
Finally, looking at Park City, Utah, it has 8 permanent centi-millionaires and this number is thought to increase to over 100 during the winter snowboarding season. And to be clear, this transient population figure only includes people who own a second home there. It does not include rich people paying US$3,700 per night to stay at Deer Valley. That's pretty good for a small town of only 8,500 permanent residents.
To check out the full list of 97 cities, click here.
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