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As a follow-up to my recent post about the rise of the second home, here is a chart (via the WSJ) showing second home and investor mortgage applications as a share of all applications in the US. In February of this year (2021), second home and investment properties accounted for 14.1% of all applications. This is a record number going back to January 2010.
What's also interesting about this chart is that, but for COVID, it shows a general decline over the last decade. I'm not sure what the split is between vacation and investment properties, but can we conclude that pre-COVID Americans were becoming less interested or perhaps less able to own a second home? And could the reason be that instead of owning a second home, more people simply started relocating permanently?
There is also an obvious seasonality to these applications. Each of the above valleys tend to correspond to the spring and summer months. It's almost as if every fall/winter we start thinking to ourselves, "Right, winter. Let's look for a place somewhere else." Is it that, or are there other forces at work here?
Real estate brokerage firm Redfin recently did an analysis of "mortgage-rate lock data" taken from the analytics firm Optimal Blue. A mortgage-rate lock is an agreement between a lender and a borrower guaranteeing a particular interest rate for a particular period of time.
What's potentially interesting about this data is that (1) approximately 80% of mortgage-rate locks apparently result in an actual home purchase and (2) buyers must specify whether they're applying to secure a rate for a primary home, a second home, or an investment property. So there's a high degree of intent that goes along with these applications.
What Redfin found when they looked at the data is that the growth in demand for second homes is exceeding that of primary homes by quite a wide margin. They argue that this is largely a result of people now working remotely.
Back in 2008, I toured the then new Mondrian Hotel Residences in Miami. At the time, the condo units were starting at around $700 per square foot. They came furnished (design by Marcel Wanders). And you had the option of putting it in the hotel pool so that you could earn revenue on it when you weren't using it. I can't remember what sort of ROI was being quoted at the time.
After reading this WSJ article today on fractional second home ownership, I decided to pull some listings in the Mondrian to see how values have fared over the last 11 years (even though the business models are different). Here is one: a 694 square foot 1 bedroom on the market for $295,000 (or about $425 psf). The HOA fee is $1,260 per month and, according to Zillow, the last recorded sale was on September 25, 2007. It sold for $630,400 (or about $908 psf).
Most people probably like the idea of owning a second home that makes money when they're not using it and that requires absolutely no work or effort. But frankly, I have yet to come across a highly successful condo-hotel project (where the units come and go from a hotel pool) and I have yet to see any data supporting fractional ownership (or private residence clubs) as a solid long-term investment.
If you disagree, feel free to prove me wrong in the comment section below.
But this rise in demand -- at least according to the above data -- appears to have started in the second half of 2019. So I think a few more data points would be helpful in understanding what's really going on. Is what we're seeing more about acceleration than about causation? And what does this look like a year from now?
Chart: Redfin
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