Warren Buffet recently said in a Yahoo Finance interview that when you buy cryptocurrencies you’re not actually investing. Instead, you’re speculating – speculating that “somebody else will come along and pay more money tomorrow.” Investments need to generate a return. And nobody is at all clear on how to value these crypto-assets. This is noteworthy, of course, because it’s Buffet.

But I thought Fred Wilson wrote a good rebuttal on his blog where he points out that, while, yes, a discounted cash flow model isn’t going to be very useful in helping you determine value in this instance, what we are actually seeing is, “the creation of a new internet, built upon protocols that allow for decentralized networks to form…” We’ve talked about this many times before on the blog.

So where I stand on this debate is that I agree with both Warren and Fred. I don’t see crypto-assets as something I want to start putting a lot of money into right now because I don’t know how to calculate what the IRR may be. But at the same time, if crypto-assets are creating decentralized infrastructure that will one day power the “new internet”, I am positive this new internet will eventually create businesses that will fit into Warren’s definition of an investment. 

“Investing is an activity in which consumption today is foregone in an attempt to allow greater consumption at a later date. “Risk” is the possibility that this objective won’t be attained.” -Warren Buffet

Warren Buffet published his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders this past Saturday. I always enjoy reading his letters and I have been doing it for years. If only he wrote a daily blog.

One of the things he talks about in this year’s letter is why Berkshire wasn’t very acquisitive in 2017:

In our search for new stand-alone businesses, the key qualities we seek are durable competitive strengths; able and high-grade management; good returns on the net tangible assets required to operate the business; opportunities for internal growth at attractive returns; and, finally, a sensible purchase price.

That last requirement proved a barrier to virtually all deals we reviewed in 2017, as prices for decent, but far from spectacular, businesses hit an all-time high. Indeed, price seemed almost irrelevant to an army of optimistic purchasers.

Some of you in the real estate game might be feeling similarly. But he ends the section with these words of advice: 

In the meantime, we will stick with our simple guideline: The less the prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own.

Buffet has a way of simplifying things. He also, clearly, has a way of remaining disciplined.

Today I am thinking about product/market fit.

Product/market fit is startup speak for being in a good market and having a product that satisfies the needs of that market. This may sound intuitive, but having the best product doesn’t matter if there’s no market for it. I like this line from Marc Andreesen: “Markets that don’t exist don’t care how smart you are.”

So the first takeaway is to create products that people care about. Sounds simple enough. But another reason why this is a thing worth talking about is that markets evolve and there’s always a chance that you can unlock a new market that nobody else is servicing. That’s obviously riskier, but it’s an ideal scenario.

Below is another way of thinking about that. It’s a quote from Andy Rachleff.

“Investment can be explained with a 2×2 matrix. On one axis you can be right or wrong. And on the other axis you can be consensus or non-consensus. Now obviously if you’re wrong you don’t make money. What most people don’t realize is if you’re right and consensus you don’t make money. The returns get arbitraged away. The only way as an investor and as an entrepreneur to make outsized returns is by being right and non-consensus.”

It’s a lot scarier to be charting new territory and sitting in the non-consensus camp. Consensus is comforting. But this is how the game works. I try and remind myself of this on a regular basis. I would like to say more, but I will leave it at that for today’s post.