One of my predictions for this year was that we would see the mainstream adoption of tokenized real-world assets. More specifically, I said that we'd see some noteworthy office building or apartment building get tokenized on the Ethereum blockchain.
Maybe. I'm not sure that we'll see a singular event this year or that we'll be able to call it "mainstream" just yet. According to this recent article by Chris Lehman, co-founder of a tokenized REIT called Groma, it's still early days.
Real estate is the world's largest asset class, with an estimated global value of around $400 trillion. But only about $500 million of it has been tokenized, which is a relatively small amount, though it's not nothing. So, what is it going to take for us to say it's "mainstream"?
Some of the obvious benefits of tokenization are that it makes transactions cheap and efficient, and it allows for composability, meaning the various smart contracts on a blockchain can then be combined and interconnected with other protocols and applications to unlock additional use cases.
Lehman gives the specific example of being able to split yield and appreciation for tokenized real estate. My mind always goes to codifying the financial terms of something like a Limited Partnership Agreement such that all of the cash flows get automatically distributed as per the agreed-upon deal.
Importantly, though, and this is mentioned in the article, the fractionalization of real assets is unlikely to be the killer feature of tokenization. Notwithstanding that it does bring some additional benefits, we've already figured out how to "democratize" the ownership of large and expensive real estate assets through REITs and other vehicles.
Instead, Lehman argues that "improving real estate's utility as collateral is likely to be the most significant improvement tokenization can offer."
I don't have a strong opinion on what will serve as the primary adoption catalyst, but I have little doubt in my mind that this is where the ownership of real estate (and other assets) is heading. If any of you are working in this space, and especially if you're based in Toronto or elsewhere in Canada, I'd love to connect with you for a coffee.
Stablecoins, as we have talked about, seem to be the first cryptocurrency use case that has achieved product-market fit. According to this recent piece by Chris Dixon in the Financial Times (which was later republished here), stablecoins moved over $12 trillion in value last year, even after filtering out stuff like bot activity. This is closing in on the $17 trillion in transactions that Visa processed last year; but crucially, stablecoin transactions are made at a fraction of the cost.
It also doesn't matter if people recognize that they're using crypto or not. The backend is continuing to be abstracted:
People all over the world will barely recognise when they’re using stablecoins when making transactions supported by them. Most people will assume they’re just using dollars. And they will be, because the differences between a stablecoin and a dollar are becoming an abstraction for the end user.
And the great promise is the following:
This isn’t just about payments. It’s a realignment of global finance. The internet gave us borderless communication. Stablecoins give us borderless value transfer. With clear rules and market structure in place, they can become both the pipes and the pillars of a new financial system.
What's also interesting, though, is that this shift seems to be strengthening US dollar dominance, as opposed to undermining it:
Stablecoin adoption also has an underappreciated second-order effect: The tokens reinforce dollar dominance in a multipolar world, creating a strong new source of demand for US debt. Leading stablecoin issuers like Circle and Tether already have nearly $140bn in direct holdings of short-term government debt, making them a top 20 holder of US debt today.
If you're looking to invest alongside this shift — and, oh boy, this is definitely not investment advice! — well, then, buying some Ether (ETH) may not be the worst idea. The majority of stablecoin transactions settle on Ethereum or on an Ethereum Layer 2, meaning that every time a transaction is completed, some amount of ETH is burned or destroyed. (Here's a Coinbase referral link that will give you C$30 in Bitcoin (BTC) when you sign up and trade.)
The bull case for ETH is that it will simultaneously become (1) the mandatory collateral and fuel for a new financial system, and (2) a deflationary asset, where more ETH is generally getting burned than is being created to reward network validators. Whether this will happen and boost the price of ETH, of course, remains to be seen. But in my view, the writing is very obviously all over the wall. Stablecoins have become part of the mainstream. The question is: where will all the value accrue in this new world?
Cover photo by Kanchanara on Unsplash
The first time I ever used dial-up internet was sometime in the 1990s. Some of you will remember that a company called CompuServe used to mail out floppy disks with "10 free hours." And I still remember the feeling of amazement the first time I tried it. Suddenly, I could chat with people from around the world. Remember a/s/l? It was so enthralling that those 10 free hours certainly didn't last very long.
Fast forward to more recent times, and I got that exact same feeling of amazement when I started diving into crypto. The first time I created a wallet, logged into to a service (using only the wallet), and then transferred funds around, I thought to myself, "Wow, this is a fundamental shift in how the world works." A lightbulb went off. And I still feel this way about crypto, which is why I remain long ETH.
But now I'm also excited about AI (along with the rest of the world). With every new model release, it gets that much more impressive. Last week I wrote about Gemini 3 and, since then, I decided to cancel my ChatGPT subscription and move all my activity over to it. I'm sure that a better model will get released before we know it, but for right now I'm having a lot of fun creating just about everything.
Here's a cartoon isometric of Toronto that I prompted to include "landmarks" and the day's weather.
Here's a photo of a woman standing in the middle of a street in Tokyo wearing a trench coat and holding an umbrella. My prompt also asked it to make it look like a "grainy digital photo."
And here's a knolling shot (new word I just learned) featuring the gear of a global citizen (or globizen if you will). I prompted each of the objects, down to the white panel on the Blue Jays hat.
It's not perfect. Text remains an issue. If you look closely at the front of the passports or the text on the Fujifilm camera, you'll see that it's AI. But it's only a matter of time before this goes away. These kinds of images used to require a lot of time and effort. Now I can create them with one hand on my phone while I'm eating a bowl of cereal and having a morning coffee. There's zero marginal cost.
Thank goodness I've got more than 10 hours of usage.