# Are AVs about to disrupt the disruptor?

By [Brandon Donnelly](https://brandondonnelly.com) · 2026-03-02

tech, uber, waymo, tesla, toronto, austin

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It seems like just yesterday that people were protesting Uber for disrupting the traditional taxi business. Now the question has become: are AVs about to disrupt Uber?

Over the last six months, Uber's stock price has declined nearly 19%. At the time of writing this post, its market cap is around $155 billion, compared to [Waymo's private market valuation of $126 billion](https://brandondonnelly.com/waymo-needs-way-more-vehicles) (though I'm sure many would argue this is a wee bit high).

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/12abe80d5f396441c60fc201ad9065f3d8003b5516f4e98783932bd1d05871b2.png)

The market seems to think that self-driving cars are a two-horse race between Waymo and Tesla. If this is true, what role will Uber play?

Uber has naturally tried to assuage concerns. Alongside their Q4 2025 earnings, they [published](https://s23.q4cdn.com/407969754/files/doc_events/2026/Feb/04/Uber-Q4-25-Earnings-AV-Spotlight.pdf) a 13-page "spotlight" on AVs, where they argued, don't worry, everything is fine:

> AVs will change how trips are supplied, but not how demand is aggregated. History suggests that over time as supply fragments and technology commoditizes, the platform that can bring the highest utilization to assets, and superior reliability to customers, will capture a large share of value. That is the role Uber is set up to play.

One of the arguments for this is that rideshare demand is highly variable throughout a week. A typical Monday can be less than half of a Saturday night, and daily troughs can decline to something like 5% of peaks.

![](https://storage.googleapis.com/papyrus_images/d5210583209f753b899be59bd92a0148cfded99befe1fd25c7c9501f1328d8e7.png)

So, if you try and service this demand variability with only AVs, you're going to have a lot of underutilized vehicles during off-peak times. This makes sense to me right now, but I'm not certain it will persist or always matter as the space evolves.

When Uber sold its AV division in 2020, I understood why (to try and reach profitability), but it always felt a little unsettling to me. AVs were very clearly the future — are you sure you want to sell this off?

Now I suspect they'll have to re-enter in a meaningful way. They're going to need to do it as long as the market continues to believe the current narrative.

I use Uber on a regular basis, but I already have the Waymo app on my phone (I downloaded it on a long layover in SFO where I contemplated a joy ride). As soon as rides become available in Toronto at reasonable prices, I wouldn't think twice about switching.

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_Cover photo by_ [_clement proust_](https://unsplash.com/@clementproust?utm_source=unsplash&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=creditCopyText) _on_ [_Unsplash_](https://unsplash.com/photos/a-white-self-driving-car-on-a-city-street-j-NjnQ0A3Sk?utm_source=unsplash&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=creditCopyText)

_Stock graph from the_ [_WSJ_](https://www.wsj.com/tech/uber-latest-victim-of-disruption-panic-still-has-role-in-robotaxis-7cb07d60?st=FYbd2D)

_Demand chart from_ [_Uber Q4 2025 Earnings — Autonomous Vehicles Spotlight_](https://s23.q4cdn.com/407969754/files/doc_events/2026/Feb/04/Uber-Q4-25-Earnings-AV-Spotlight.pdf)

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*Originally published on [Brandon Donnelly](https://brandondonnelly.com/are-avs-about-to-disrupt-the-disruptor)*