Here is an interesting chart from the WSJ showing how much net income migrated to the state of Florida between 2019 and 2020:
I’m not sure what the exact dates are for this dataset, but it seems to again suggest that this migration was already a trend before the pandemic happened.
Either way, Miami is red hot and the continues to lead the US in residential rental rate growth. But all of this growth is now apparently starting to catch up to the city. Here is just one example from the same article (though developers here in Toronto would gladly take this sort of timeline):
Right before the pandemic, when he moved to Miami, he said it took no more than four months from when he submitted development plans to when he got city approval. Now, with the number of projects swamping Miami Beach’s staff and resources, that same process takes nearly a year, Mr. Curnin said.
This frenetic run-up is also causing some in the city, including Barry Sternlicht of Starwood Capital Group, to pause:
“Everyone and their cousins are looking to build a building here,” he said. “I’m getting nervous.”
Miami has historically always been a boom and bust kind of market. I don’t know if this is one of those times, but there’s clearly no denying the allure of palm trees, warm winter weather, and no state income tax.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume the fall of Roe v. Wade could change this somewhat in the years ahead. Especially with companies less likely to relocate.