Amazon released its shortlist of HQ2 cities this morning. Below are the 20 metropolitan areas. They were selected from 238 bids, so this shortlist represents 8.4% of the original pool.

• Atlanta, GA
• Austin, TX
• Boston, MA
• Chicago, IL
• Columbus, OH
• Dallas, TX
• Denver, CO
• Indianapolis, IN
• Los Angeles, CA
• Miami, FL
• Montgomery County, MD
• Nashville, TN
• Newark, NJ
• New York City, NY
• Northern Virginia, VA
• Philadelphia, PA
• Pittsburgh, PA
• Raleigh, NC
• Toronto, ON
• Washington D.C.

I saw some people on Twitter say that they were surprised to see Toronto and Miami on this list. I was not. If you remember, I publicly predicted on this blog that Toronto would be selected for Amazon HQ2.

That said, I thought it would be fun to guess at an even shorter list from Amazon’s shortlist. I have no knowledge of Amazon’s actual selections process, but if I had to guess, here is who I would cross off the list:

• Atlanta, GA
• Austin, TX
• Boston, MA
• Chicago, IL
• Columbus, OH
• Dallas, TX
• Denver, CO
• Indianapolis, IN
• Los Angeles, CA
• Miami, FL
• Montgomery County, MD
• Nashville, TN
• Newark, NJ
• New York City, NY
• Northern Virginia, VA
• Philadelphia, PA
• Pittsburgh, PA
• Raleigh, NC
• Toronto, ON
• Washington D.C.

That leaves us with a list that looks like this:

1. Boston, MA
2. Miami, FL
3. Montgomery County, MD
4. Newark, NJ
5. Northern Virginia, VA
6. Toronto, ON
7. Washington D.C.

So why this list? I’m probably wrong, but my reasons are as follows:

– I think Amazon will opt for a metro area on eastern time.

– There seems to be a predilection for areas around Washington D.C., so I left Montgomery County and Northern Virginia. 

– As wonderful as it is, New York City feels too center ice for Amazon – at least in my view. But maybe Newark places them in the catchment area.

– The area needs to be of a certain scale so Amazon doesn’t overpower it and they have enough human capital to draw from.

– Miami is my sleeper bet. Most people think of it simply as a resort town, but there’s a huge percentage of foreign born residents and powerful arts/design scene.

– Talent is number one, which is why I left Boston and Toronto and why I continue to believe in Toronto. Toronto is more dynamic than Boston.

If I had to pick just three from the above shortlist, my bets would be, in alphabetical order: Boston, Toronto, and Washington D.C. What are yours?