Amazon released its shortlist of HQ2 cities this morning. Below are the 20 metropolitan areas. They were selected from 238 bids, so this shortlist represents 8.4% of the original pool.
- Atlanta, GA
- Austin, TX
- Boston, MA
- Chicago, IL
- Columbus, OH
- Dallas, TX
- Denver, CO
- Indianapolis, IN
- Los Angeles, CA
- Miami, FL
- Montgomery County, MD
- Nashville, TN
- Newark, NJ
- New York City, NY
- Northern Virginia, VA
- Philadelphia, PA
- Pittsburgh, PA
- Raleigh, NC
- Toronto, ON
- Washington D.C.
I saw some people on Twitter say that they were surprised to see Toronto and Miami on this list. I was not. If you remember, I publicly predicted on this blog that Toronto would be selected for Amazon HQ2.
That said, I thought it would be fun to guess at an even shorter list from Amazon’s shortlist. I have no knowledge of Amazon’s actual selections process, but if I had to guess, here is who I would cross off the list:
Atlanta, GAAustin, TX- Boston, MA
Chicago, ILColumbus, OHDallas, TXDenver, COIndianapolis, INLos Angeles, CA- Miami, FL
- Montgomery County, MD
Nashville, TN- Newark, NJ
New York City, NY- Northern Virginia, VA
Philadelphia, PAPittsburgh, PARaleigh, NC- Toronto, ON
- Washington D.C.
That leaves us with a list that looks like this:
- Boston, MA
- Miami, FL
- Montgomery County, MD
- Newark, NJ
- Northern Virginia, VA
- Toronto, ON
- Washington D.C.
So why this list? I’m probably wrong, but my reasons are as follows:
– I think Amazon will opt for a metro area on eastern time.
– There seems to be a predilection for areas around Washington D.C., so I left Montgomery County and Northern Virginia.
– As wonderful as it is, New York City feels too center ice for Amazon – at least in my view. But maybe Newark places them in the catchment area.
– The area needs to be of a certain scale so Amazon doesn’t overpower it and they have enough human capital to draw from.
– Miami is my sleeper bet. Most people think of it simply as a resort town, but there’s a huge percentage of foreign born residents and powerful arts/design scene.
– Talent is number one, which is why I left Boston and Toronto and why I continue to believe in Toronto. Toronto is more dynamic than Boston.
If I had to pick just three from the above shortlist, my bets would be, in alphabetical order: Boston, Toronto, and Washington D.C. What are yours?
